21.06.2024 Opinion

2024 legislative elections: the chaotic story of a whirlwind election campaign

The trigger

In response to the results of the European elections, the President’s (surprise) announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly on 9 June plunged France into an unprecedented political situation, reviving old rivalries and generating new alliances.

On the strength of its historic score (31%) in the European elections, the Rassemblement National (RN) is now the favourite to win the legislative elections scheduled for 30 June and 7 July. While for Laurent Wauquiez, president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, these results herald “the end of Macronism“, culture minister Rachida Dati deplores a “collective failure“.

The imminence of the legislative elections is now imposing on all parties the challenges of a lightning campaign lasting just three weeks, transforming the political dynamic in France. The urgency is as much strategic as it is technical: in a situation of political reshuffle, the parties have had a week to put forward candidates, who themselves have had two days to print their professions of faith. A context that may have slowed down and prevented some candidates from standing, since this year there are 4,011 candidates compared with 6,293 in 2022.

Parties in search of unity

In a coalition inherited from the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES) formed in the 2022 legislative elections, the left quickly came together under the umbrella of a “New Popular Front” (NFP). These include the Socialist Party, Place Publique, La France Insoumise, the French Communist Party and the Ecologists.


François Ruffin calling for a union of the left on his Instagram account

 

“Prêts à la bataille dans l’unité et la clarté” (LFI), the NFP thus intends to “barrer la route au RN” (Raphaël Glucksmann, Place Publique) and “avoid the worst” (François Ruffin, LFI). Beyond the existing divisions, the urgent need for a common mobilisation around this same ambition prevailed.

It was a different scenario for the right, where divisions within the parties themselves hampered the construction of a united response. While Marion Maréchal, for whom the “camp national no longer has the right to be divided” called on Reconquête voters to vote for RN candidates, Eric Ciotti, who believes that “the only answer is the union of republicans and patriots in the face of the peril of the far left” has decided to rally to the RN with LR volunteers. These statements and actions will not have been without consequences, with each of them duly thanked by their (former) party.

Emmanuel Macron’s “Ensemble pour la République” camp thus has to contend with these two very distinct main coalitions. Speaking to journalist Amandine Bégot on RTL Matin, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe called for “building a new majority” and “accepting that on a certain number of points we can work with others.” Renaissance, Horizons and the MoDem now form the “third bloc” (Gabriel Attal).

Different logics

Drawing on the work of Marc-Antoine Brillant and Selda Gloanec (2016)[1], different coalition strategies can be identified.

The “logic of composition” with a view to a “logic of consolidation” employed by the NFP initially aims to unite left-wing voters across certain different visions and then attempt to “neutralise” these divergences in order to “maintain a balance”. For its part, the RN seems to have opted for the “logic of isolation”, taking care not to join forces with certain parties.

Just like the “neither right nor left” political line that Emmanuel Macron claimed in 2017, the “logic of consolidation” is used by “Ensemble pour la République”. It aims to “maintain a balance towards the centre” because “the programmes presented by the far left and far right would be disasters for the economy and for jobs.”

The strategic choice of protagonists/antagonists

The question of candidate nominations and the allocation of constituencies then quickly arose. The presidential majority, which wishes to “fight the extremes from the first round” according to Gabriel Attal, chose not to field candidates in around sixty constituencies deeming its “candidates useful […] to prevent the extremes from coming to power.”

This chapter also marks the unexpected return of some political figures, such as former President François Hollande, candidate for the 1st constituency of Corrèze, or his former budget minister Jérôme Cahuzac, candidate for the 3rd constituency of Lot-et-Garonne.

And in the event of victory, who will be given the lead role of Prime Minister? While the flame party has already announced that Jordan Bardella would be Prime Minister in the event of an absolute majority, this is a more divisive issue for the NFP: vote… (championed by Olivier Faure, contested by LFI) or parliamentary weight (strongly supported by LFI)?

Purchasing power: a common leitmotiv

Purchasing power is central to every programme. An unsurprising fact if we look back at the Ipsos study “Understanding the French vote“, carried out in the run-up to the European elections, which identifies this subject as counting most in the choice of vote, just ahead of immigration and the environment.

Comparative performance on social networks

Since 1 June, the “legislative” elections have generated 2.1M mentions on social networks in France

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Inevitably, there was a high level of political, militant and committed mobilisation on social networks. In an “open letter to all the young people who follow [him]” on Instagram, influencer Squeezie called for a barrage against the RN, a first for the YouTubeur with over 8 million followers. The riposte was not long in coming, and Jordan Bardella responded in kind, in an “open letter to all young people who follow Squeezie (and others).”

On this last screen, Jordan Bardella shows himself to be a gamer as well as a politician.

The ‘clash’ strategy is also very much in evidence on X, where each candidate compares his or her programme with that of another, inviting readers to make the right choice when casting their vote.

On X, the internal battles are unfiltered. Eric Ciotti, deprived of access to the LR account, has stepped up his communication from his personal account.

An uncertain ending

While this political tale resembles a short story with an uncertain ending, it is above all revealing of the need to exist in relation to an adversary, like a protagonist and his antagonist.

By Aurore Nory.

[1] Brillant, M. & Gloanec, S. (2016). A little strategy in a world of policies…. Stratégique, 112, 209-216. https://doi.org/10.3917/strat.112.0209