The PayPal Mafia’s battle for influence in the US presidential election

Among the many paradigm shifts brought about by Donald Trump’s victory, the political shift of several major players in Silicon Valley, which has historically been Democratic, is one of the most striking. Unlike in previous elections, this year the Republican party has benefited from strong support, of which Elon Musk was of course the most prominent.

After supporting B. Obama, H. Clinton and J. Biden in 2020, this time E. Musk has plunged resolutely into the Trump camp, with an activism that has no equal. Four years ago, the billionaire, who has since become the owner of X, used this network mainly to share news about his companies, without exposing himself on political subjects. A recent study by Le Monde made the comparison, noting more than 3,000 tweets published by Elon Musk in the month preceding this year’s US election, 10 times more than 4 years ago. Above all, this time, 70% of his posts were dedicated to politics, promoting Donald Trump or attacking the Democrats, the media and feeding false information.

But behind Elon Musk, it was above all the ‘PayPal Mafia’, the powerful network of tech billionaires who founded the company in the late 1990s, that was particularly active, through the two other co-founders, Peter Thiel and David Sacks.

Historically, however, Silicon Valley has always overwhelmingly supported the Democratic camp, which was judged to be more capable of defending a progressive ideology, in phase with the technologies and services that aim to offer us spaces for exchange, information and creation. So why has this new election led to a change of heart among some of Silicon Valley’s elite?

Certainly for pragmatic reasons. The Biden administration made its mark with its desire to impose regulation on AI and crypto-currencies, as well as the anti-trust investigations conducted against the GAFAMs. More than a vote in favour of the Republican camp, this swing by a section of the tech industry seems to be more akin to a vote of rejection of a Biden administration seen as the embodiment of regulation. Supporting Trump was first and foremost a support for business and the fight against bureaucracy.

This political shift is also the unabashed expression of a libertarian movement, of which Peter Thiel is one of the leading thinkers. Convinced that freedom and capitalism are incompatible with democracy, Peter Thiel has long supported the radical right, with the aim of finding a way out of all forms of government, through technology or in unclaimed areas such as cyberspace or the oceans. As for Elon Musk, he is waging a war against the ‘woke’ movement, which he has associated with the Democrats ever since one of his children changed gender.

Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, who have a long-standing rivalry, joined forces to finance the Republican candidate’s campaign by founding America PAC, their Super PAC. Above all, the appointment of Ohio Senator J. D. Vance as Donald Trump’s running mate was one of the victories achieved by the ‘Paypal Mafia’ ahead of the presidential election results. The conservative senator is close to Peter Thiel, who largely financed his political rise. J.D. Vance is an expert on Silicon Valley, having worked in Peter Thiel’s investment companies before setting up his own venture capital firm, Narya Capital. As well as having the legitimacy to speak to the working class in the key Mid-Western states, J.D. Vance was the ideal asset to promote the tech business community, while at the same time ensuring that Trump’s young age would be the start of his legacy.

A victory that seems perfect and raises questions. How did a libertarian movement, which is certainly powerful but largely in the minority, manage to establish itself at the head of the world’s leading power and guide its public policies? Was it a defensive reaction to the regulatory expansion of the state? Or a desire for a political reset from within in the face of the rejection of democratic leverage as a means of reform? Time will tell.

By Simon Loussouarn